If you’re wondering what to do with your Deckers Outdoor shares after this wild ride, you’re not alone. The stock has seen a roller-coaster year, down 51.5% year-to-date and off 16.2% in just the last month. But if you zoom out, the bigger picture is striking: over five years, Deckers has returned 138.7%, and it’s still up an impressive 65% over three years. The past week has been relatively stable, with a modest gain of 1.3%, suggesting some investors think most of the bad news is baked in.

What’s driving these moves? Shifts in consumer demand and broader changes in the outdoor and footwear sectors have made the market rethink what Deckers might be worth, putting the company’s fundamentals under a new spotlight. We’ve run the numbers on six different measures of value, from price-to-earnings to free cash flow yield, and Deckers clocks in a valuation score of 4 out of 6 for being undervalued. That means there could be some real opportunities here if you know where to look.

In the next section, we’ll break down those valuation approaches so you can see exactly where Deckers stacks up. And if you think traditional metrics only tell part of the story, hang on as we’ll be sharing an even more insightful perspective at the end of the article.

Why Deckers Outdoor is lagging behind its peers

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the value of Deckers Outdoor by projecting the company’s expected future free cash flows and then discounting those amounts back to today’s dollars. This approach provides an intrinsic value based on the company’s ability to generate cash, rather than just accounting metrics or market sentiment.

Currently, Deckers Outdoor produced $864 million in free cash flow over the last twelve months. According to analysts, free cash flow is expected to steadily grow, reaching $949 million by 2030. These forecasts combine direct analyst estimates for the next five years and model-based projections beyond that. In every year, cash flow remains well below the billion-dollar mark but shows a solid, gradual increase.

Based on the DCF model, the estimated fair value for Deckers Outdoor is $97.03 per share. Comparing this to the current share price, the stock is about 2.3% overvalued. For investors, this implies that Deckers is trading very close to its estimated intrinsic value using this cash-flow based approach, with only a slight premium attached.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Deckers Outdoor.

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day ( check out Deckers Outdoor's valuation analysis ). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is widely used to value profitable companies because it shows how much investors are willing to pay today for one dollar of future earnings. This is especially relevant for businesses like Deckers Outdoor, which consistently generate positive earnings. When considering what qualifies as a "normal" or "fair" PE ratio, investors look at how quickly the company is expected to grow, how stable those earnings are, and any risks that could impact future profits. Higher growth and lower risk often justify a higher PE, while the reverse pushes the ratio down.

Right now, Deckers Outdoor trades at a PE ratio of 14.9x. That is noticeably below the luxury industry average of 19.5x and far under the average for similar peers, which sits at 37.6x. On paper, the stock appears cheap against these broader benchmarks. However, headline comparisons can be misleading without factoring in Deckers' growth, margins, or specific business risks.

This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary "Fair Ratio" comes in. The Fair Ratio for Deckers is 17.5x, calculated based on its growth outlook, risk profile, profit margins, industry placement, and market cap. This metric aims to offer a more balanced view than simple industry or peer comparisons. Comparing Deckers' actual PE of 14.9x with its Fair Ratio of 17.5x suggests the stock may be undervalued by this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth .

Earlier, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your own story behind the numbers: it combines your perspective on Deckers Outdoor’s future with your assumptions about fair value, future revenue, earnings, and margins. Narratives link the company’s real-world story to a financial forecast and then to an estimate of true value, giving your investment outlook context beyond what the headline metrics say.

Narratives are easy to create and explore on Simply Wall St’s platform, where millions of investors share their views. You can find them within the Community page. They help you decide when to buy or sell by comparing the Fair Value you believe in with the current Price. Narratives also update dynamically as the latest news or earnings arrive, so your decisions evolve with the facts.

For example, one investor’s Narrative for Deckers Outdoor might focus on global UGG and HOKA brand expansion and margin strength, justifying a fair value as high as $158 per share. Another investor might worry about slowing US growth and shrinking margins, resulting in a much lower fair value around $97.

Do you think there's more to the story for Deckers Outdoor? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include DECK .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

If you’re wondering what to do with your Deckers Outdoor shares after this wild ride, you’re not alone. The stock has seen a roller-coaster year, down 51.5% year-to-date and off 16.2% in just the last month. But if you zoom out, the bigger picture is striking: over five years, Deckers has returned 138.7%, and it’s still up an impressive 65% over three years. The past week has been relatively stable, with a modest gain of 1.3%, suggesting some investors think most of the bad news is baked in.

What’s driving these moves? Shifts in consumer demand and broader changes in the outdoor and footwear sectors have made the market rethink what Deckers might be worth, putting the company’s fundamentals under a new spotlight. We’ve run the numbers on six different measures of value, from price-to-earnings to free cash flow yield, and Deckers clocks in a valuation score of 4 out of 6 for being undervalued. That means there could be some real opportunities here if you know where to look.

In the next section, we’ll break down those valuation approaches so you can see exactly where Deckers stacks up. And if you think traditional metrics only tell part of the story, hang on as we’ll be sharing an even more insightful perspective at the end of the article.

Why Deckers Outdoor is lagging behind its peers

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the value of Deckers Outdoor by projecting the company’s expected future free cash flows and then discounting those amounts back to today’s dollars. This approach provides an intrinsic value based on the company’s ability to generate cash, rather than just accounting metrics or market sentiment.

Currently, Deckers Outdoor produced $864 million in free cash flow over the last twelve months. According to analysts, free cash flow is expected to steadily grow, reaching $949 million by 2030. These forecasts combine direct analyst estimates for the next five years and model-based projections beyond that. In every year, cash flow remains well below the billion-dollar mark but shows a solid, gradual increase.

Based on the DCF model, the estimated fair value for Deckers Outdoor is $97.03 per share. Comparing this to the current share price, the stock is about 2.3% overvalued. For investors, this implies that Deckers is trading very close to its estimated intrinsic value using this cash-flow based approach, with only a slight premium attached.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Deckers Outdoor.

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day ( check out Deckers Outdoor's valuation analysis ). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is widely used to value profitable companies because it shows how much investors are willing to pay today for one dollar of future earnings. This is especially relevant for businesses like Deckers Outdoor, which consistently generate positive earnings. When considering what qualifies as a "normal" or "fair" PE ratio, investors look at how quickly the company is expected to grow, how stable those earnings are, and any risks that could impact future profits. Higher growth and lower risk often justify a higher PE, while the reverse pushes the ratio down.

Right now, Deckers Outdoor trades at a PE ratio of 14.9x. That is noticeably below the luxury industry average of 19.5x and far under the average for similar peers, which sits at 37.6x. On paper, the stock appears cheap against these broader benchmarks. However, headline comparisons can be misleading without factoring in Deckers' growth, margins, or specific business risks.

This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary "Fair Ratio" comes in. The Fair Ratio for Deckers is 17.5x, calculated based on its growth outlook, risk profile, profit margins, industry placement, and market cap. This metric aims to offer a more balanced view than simple industry or peer comparisons. Comparing Deckers' actual PE of 14.9x with its Fair Ratio of 17.5x suggests the stock may be undervalued by this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth .

Earlier, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your own story behind the numbers: it combines your perspective on Deckers Outdoor’s future with your assumptions about fair value, future revenue, earnings, and margins. Narratives link the company’s real-world story to a financial forecast and then to an estimate of true value, giving your investment outlook context beyond what the headline metrics say.

Narratives are easy to create and explore on Simply Wall St’s platform, where millions of investors share their views. You can find them within the Community page. They help you decide when to buy or sell by comparing the Fair Value you believe in with the current Price. Narratives also update dynamically as the latest news or earnings arrive, so your decisions evolve with the facts.

For example, one investor’s Narrative for Deckers Outdoor might focus on global UGG and HOKA brand expansion and margin strength, justifying a fair value as high as $158 per share. Another investor might worry about slowing US growth and shrinking margins, resulting in a much lower fair value around $97.

Do you think there's more to the story for Deckers Outdoor? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include DECK .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day ( check out Deckers Outdoor's valuation analysis ). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is widely used to value profitable companies because it shows how much investors are willing to pay today for one dollar of future earnings. This is especially relevant for businesses like Deckers Outdoor, which consistently generate positive earnings. When considering what qualifies as a "normal" or "fair" PE ratio, investors look at how quickly the company is expected to grow, how stable those earnings are, and any risks that could impact future profits. Higher growth and lower risk often justify a higher PE, while the reverse pushes the ratio down.

Right now, Deckers Outdoor trades at a PE ratio of 14.9x. That is noticeably below the luxury industry average of 19.5x and far under the average for similar peers, which sits at 37.6x. On paper, the stock appears cheap against these broader benchmarks. However, headline comparisons can be misleading without factoring in Deckers' growth, margins, or specific business risks.

This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary "Fair Ratio" comes in. The Fair Ratio for Deckers is 17.5x, calculated based on its growth outlook, risk profile, profit margins, industry placement, and market cap. This metric aims to offer a more balanced view than simple industry or peer comparisons. Comparing Deckers' actual PE of 14.9x with its Fair Ratio of 17.5x suggests the stock may be undervalued by this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth .

Earlier, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your own story behind the numbers: it combines your perspective on Deckers Outdoor’s future with your assumptions about fair value, future revenue, earnings, and margins. Narratives link the company’s real-world story to a financial forecast and then to an estimate of true value, giving your investment outlook context beyond what the headline metrics say.

Narratives are easy to create and explore on Simply Wall St’s platform, where millions of investors share their views. You can find them within the Community page. They help you decide when to buy or sell by comparing the Fair Value you believe in with the current Price. Narratives also update dynamically as the latest news or earnings arrive, so your decisions evolve with the facts.

For example, one investor’s Narrative for Deckers Outdoor might focus on global UGG and HOKA brand expansion and margin strength, justifying a fair value as high as $158 per share. Another investor might worry about slowing US growth and shrinking margins, resulting in a much lower fair value around $97.

Do you think there's more to the story for Deckers Outdoor? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include DECK .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com