Gold Hits Fresh Record on Fed Rate-Cut Signal, US-China Tensions

(Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a fresh record, boosted by an escalation in US-China frictions and bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more this year.

Bullion climbed as much as 1.2% to a peak of $4,193.65 an ounce on Wednesday. Spot silver advanced after a volatile day on Tuesday that saw prices surge to an all-time high above $53.54 an ounce, before tumbling sharply amid signs a historic squeeze is starting to ease.

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Yields on US Treasuries fell to the lowest levels since 2022, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the US central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point cut later this month. Lower yields and borrowing costs tend to benefit precious metals, which don’t pay interest.

Meanwhile, risk-off sentiment swept markets — boosting gold’s haven appeal — after President Donald Trump said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China. The comments injected fresh tensions into the relationship between the world’s two largest economies, with Beijing vowing to retaliate after Washington threatened an additional 100% tariff on China last week.

In silver, the market has been gripped by a lack of liquidity in London, sparking a worldwide hunt for metal and driving benchmark prices to soar above futures in New York. The gap between the two markets narrowed on Tuesday after London prices fell, while the cost of borrowing silver in the city also started to decline, although both remained at very high levels.

Traders remain on edge ahead of the conclusion of the US administration’s so-called Section 232 probe into critical minerals — which includes silver, as well as platinum and palladium. The investigation has revived fears the metals could be swept up in new tariffs, even after they were officially exempt from levies in April.

The four main precious metals have surged between 58% and 82% this year, in a rally that’s dominated commodity markets. Gold’s advance has been underpinned by central-bank buying, rising holdings in exchange-traded funds, and Fed rate cuts.

Demand for havens has been aided by recurrent US-China trade tensions, threats to the Fed’s independence, and a US government shutdown. Investors have also been seeking safety in precious metals to protect themselves from the threats posed by runaway budget deficits — a phenomenon known as the “debasement trade.”

Haven buying for both gold and silver is continuing as “US-China trade tensions increased further uncertainty, with expectations of further US interest rate cuts adding to momentum,” Manav Modi, a precious metals analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., said in a note.

Spot gold traded 1.1% higher at $4,187.54 an ounce at 2:04 p.m. in Singapore. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower. Silver was up almost 2%, while platinum and palladium gained.

--With assistance from Yihui Xie.