Rachel Reeves does not have a credible plan to grow the economy and get debt down, one of Britain’s most respected economists has said.
Sir Charlie Bean, who has held senior posts at both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Bank of England, said he did not believe that Ms Reeves’s policies could arrest the recent upward lurch in UK borrowing costs.
His intervention comes as economists warn that Ms Reeves will have to raise taxes by at least £30bn to balance the books in her November Budget. The predicament is partly of the Chancellor’s own making after costly about-turns blew a hole in her finely balanced plans.
Ms Reeves is keen to repair her plans and restore £9.9bn of headroom against her fiscal goals in an effort to convince voters and investors that she has a plan for the economy.
However, Sir Charlie said simply restoring the wafer-thing headroom mattered “less than the Government having a clear, coherent and credible plan for its fiscal and economic policies. At present, it does not really seem to have that”.
The damning verdict, delivered in response to a survey published by the Centre for Macroeconomics , is a blow for the Chancellor, given Sir Charlie’s standing. He was knighted for services to monetary policy and central banking in 2014 after 14 years at the Bank of England and served as an executive member of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) between 2017 and 2021.
The yield on 10-year gilts, as UK government bonds are known, has risen from around 4.2pc on the eve of Labour’s first Budget last year to more than 4.7pc today.
Sir Charlie said: “With debt interest already exceeding £100bn and not far short of 10pc of government spending, the Government really cannot afford to see yields on its debt rise substantially more. So maintaining the confidence of market participants in the sustainability of the Government’s fiscal plans is crucial.”
He said high UK inflation, partly driven by Ms Reeves’s national insurance raid, had contributed to the rise in short-term borrowing costs.
Sir Charlie added: “Further out, I would place more of the blame on the unwillingness of successive UK governments to recognise the realities of the country’s economic and fiscal position and their consequent inability to push through an effective policy response.”
It came as Andrew Bailey suggested it had become too difficult to build in Britain . The Governor of the Bank of England said the UK must strive to regain the speed of construction that helped power the North Sea oil and gas boom, to give the economy a fresh kick start.
“I recall visiting the oil terminal at Flotta in Orkney. The fact that stuck in my mind is that planning consent was given for Phase One of the terminal in January 1974, and it was operational by summer 1976,” Mr Bailey said.
“That pace of progress feels like an achievement that we must aspire to in terms of efficiency of construction if we are to exploit this generation’s white heat of technology moment.”
In his allusion to Harold Wilson’s promise in 1963 to embrace the “white heat” of a new “scientific revolution”, Mr Bailey emphasised the need to recapture that spirit today.
He noted that “there are big plans to emulate the discovery of oil around Orkney in the 1970s with the development of renewables”.
The Governor said it should be “obvious”, but it was vital to push ahead with valuable investment to turn the economy around.
“The lesson for me of the 1970s story at Flotta was to have the vision and then get on with it – obvious I know, but not always realised,” he said at the Scotland Global Investment Summit.
Separately, Ms Reeves hosted tech and finance leaders on Monday in an effort to encourage them to list on the London stock market. The Chancellor was joined by Goldman Sachs’ Anthony Gutman, one of the City’s leading investment bankers, with other senior bankers expected to take part in similar meetings in the coming weeks and months.
Companies at the meeting are understood to have pushed the Chancellor for more deregulation and tax cuts, including to stamp duty on shares, to boost the market.
A Treasury spokesman said: “The Chancellor is focused on making the UK the best place for businesses to invest and attracting the most innovative companies to start, scale, list and stay here, and the FTSE 100 continues to trade close to an all-time high.
“By continuing to remove barriers to investment, we’re delivering our Plan for Change so that our businesses succeed, and our economy grows.”
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Rachel Reeves does not have a credible plan to grow the economy and get debt down, one of Britain’s most respected economists has said.
Sir Charlie Bean, who has held senior posts at both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Bank of England, said he did not believe that Ms Reeves’s policies could arrest the recent upward lurch in UK borrowing costs.
His intervention comes as economists warn that Ms Reeves will have to raise taxes by at least £30bn to balance the books in her November Budget. The predicament is partly of the Chancellor’s own making after costly about-turns blew a hole in her finely balanced plans.
Ms Reeves is keen to repair her plans and restore £9.9bn of headroom against her fiscal goals in an effort to convince voters and investors that she has a plan for the economy.
However, Sir Charlie said simply restoring the wafer-thing headroom mattered “less than the Government having a clear, coherent and credible plan for its fiscal and economic policies. At present, it does not really seem to have that”.
The damning verdict, delivered in response to a survey published by the Centre for Macroeconomics , is a blow for the Chancellor, given Sir Charlie’s standing. He was knighted for services to monetary policy and central banking in 2014 after 14 years at the Bank of England and served as an executive member of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) between 2017 and 2021.
The yield on 10-year gilts, as UK government bonds are known, has risen from around 4.2pc on the eve of Labour’s first Budget last year to more than 4.7pc today.
Sir Charlie said: “With debt interest already exceeding £100bn and not far short of 10pc of government spending, the Government really cannot afford to see yields on its debt rise substantially more. So maintaining the confidence of market participants in the sustainability of the Government’s fiscal plans is crucial.”
He said high UK inflation, partly driven by Ms Reeves’s national insurance raid, had contributed to the rise in short-term borrowing costs.
Sir Charlie added: “Further out, I would place more of the blame on the unwillingness of successive UK governments to recognise the realities of the country’s economic and fiscal position and their consequent inability to push through an effective policy response.”
It came as Andrew Bailey suggested it had become too difficult to build in Britain . The Governor of the Bank of England said the UK must strive to regain the speed of construction that helped power the North Sea oil and gas boom, to give the economy a fresh kick start.
“I recall visiting the oil terminal at Flotta in Orkney. The fact that stuck in my mind is that planning consent was given for Phase One of the terminal in January 1974, and it was operational by summer 1976,” Mr Bailey said.
“That pace of progress feels like an achievement that we must aspire to in terms of efficiency of construction if we are to exploit this generation’s white heat of technology moment.”
In his allusion to Harold Wilson’s promise in 1963 to embrace the “white heat” of a new “scientific revolution”, Mr Bailey emphasised the need to recapture that spirit today.
He noted that “there are big plans to emulate the discovery of oil around Orkney in the 1970s with the development of renewables”.
The Governor said it should be “obvious”, but it was vital to push ahead with valuable investment to turn the economy around.
“The lesson for me of the 1970s story at Flotta was to have the vision and then get on with it – obvious I know, but not always realised,” he said at the Scotland Global Investment Summit.
Separately, Ms Reeves hosted tech and finance leaders on Monday in an effort to encourage them to list on the London stock market. The Chancellor was joined by Goldman Sachs’ Anthony Gutman, one of the City’s leading investment bankers, with other senior bankers expected to take part in similar meetings in the coming weeks and months.
Companies at the meeting are understood to have pushed the Chancellor for more deregulation and tax cuts, including to stamp duty on shares, to boost the market.
A Treasury spokesman said: “The Chancellor is focused on making the UK the best place for businesses to invest and attracting the most innovative companies to start, scale, list and stay here, and the FTSE 100 continues to trade close to an all-time high.
“By continuing to remove barriers to investment, we’re delivering our Plan for Change so that our businesses succeed, and our economy grows.”
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
“I recall visiting the oil terminal at Flotta in Orkney. The fact that stuck in my mind is that planning consent was given for Phase One of the terminal in January 1974, and it was operational by summer 1976,” Mr Bailey said.
“That pace of progress feels like an achievement that we must aspire to in terms of efficiency of construction if we are to exploit this generation’s white heat of technology moment.”
In his allusion to Harold Wilson’s promise in 1963 to embrace the “white heat” of a new “scientific revolution”, Mr Bailey emphasised the need to recapture that spirit today.
He noted that “there are big plans to emulate the discovery of oil around Orkney in the 1970s with the development of renewables”.
The Governor said it should be “obvious”, but it was vital to push ahead with valuable investment to turn the economy around.
“The lesson for me of the 1970s story at Flotta was to have the vision and then get on with it – obvious I know, but not always realised,” he said at the Scotland Global Investment Summit.
Separately, Ms Reeves hosted tech and finance leaders on Monday in an effort to encourage them to list on the London stock market. The Chancellor was joined by Goldman Sachs’ Anthony Gutman, one of the City’s leading investment bankers, with other senior bankers expected to take part in similar meetings in the coming weeks and months.
Companies at the meeting are understood to have pushed the Chancellor for more deregulation and tax cuts, including to stamp duty on shares, to boost the market.
A Treasury spokesman said: “The Chancellor is focused on making the UK the best place for businesses to invest and attracting the most innovative companies to start, scale, list and stay here, and the FTSE 100 continues to trade close to an all-time high.
“By continuing to remove barriers to investment, we’re delivering our Plan for Change so that our businesses succeed, and our economy grows.”
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.