By Sam Li and Lewis Jackson
(Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. and Chinese economic officials sketched out a trade-deal framework, easing fears that tariffs and export curbs between the world's top two oil consumers could dent global economic growth.
Brent crude futures rose 47 cents, or 0.71%, to $66.41 a barrel by 0629 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.72%, to $61.94, after rising 8.9% and 7.7%, respectively, in the previous week on U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia.
Haitong Securities said in a client note that market expectations have improved following new sanctions on Russia and the easing of U.S.-China tension, countering concern about crude oversupply that had driven prices down earlier in October.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said U.S. and Chinese officials hashed out a "very substantial framework" for a trade deal which would allow President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to discuss trade cooperation this week.
Bessent said the framework would avoid 100% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and achieve a deferral of China's rare-earth export controls.
Trump also said on Sunday he was optimistic about reaching an agreement with Beijing and expected to hold meetings in China and the United States.
"I think we're going to have a deal with China," Trump said. "We're going to meet them later in China and we're going to meet them in the U.S., either Washington or Mar-a-Lago."
The trade-deal framework helps allay concern that Russia could offset new U.S. sanctions, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, by offering deeper discounts and using shadow fleets to lure buyers, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
"However, if sanctions on Russian energy are less effective than expected, oversupply pressures could return to the market," said Haitong Securities analyst Yang An.
(Reporting by Sam Li and Colleen Howe; Editing by Sonali Paul and Christopher Cushing)
By Sam Li and Lewis Jackson
(Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. and Chinese economic officials sketched out a trade-deal framework, easing fears that tariffs and export curbs between the world's top two oil consumers could dent global economic growth.
Brent crude futures rose 47 cents, or 0.71%, to $66.41 a barrel by 0629 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.72%, to $61.94, after rising 8.9% and 7.7%, respectively, in the previous week on U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia.
Haitong Securities said in a client note that market expectations have improved following new sanctions on Russia and the easing of U.S.-China tension, countering concern about crude oversupply that had driven prices down earlier in October.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said U.S. and Chinese officials hashed out a "very substantial framework" for a trade deal which would allow President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to discuss trade cooperation this week.
Bessent said the framework would avoid 100% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and achieve a deferral of China's rare-earth export controls.
Trump also said on Sunday he was optimistic about reaching an agreement with Beijing and expected to hold meetings in China and the United States.
"I think we're going to have a deal with China," Trump said. "We're going to meet them later in China and we're going to meet them in the U.S., either Washington or Mar-a-Lago."
The trade-deal framework helps allay concern that Russia could offset new U.S. sanctions, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, by offering deeper discounts and using shadow fleets to lure buyers, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
"However, if sanctions on Russian energy are less effective than expected, oversupply pressures could return to the market," said Haitong Securities analyst Yang An.
(Reporting by Sam Li and Colleen Howe; Editing by Sonali Paul and Christopher Cushing)
The Halving Supply Shock Model, also known as the 'Bitcoin Autocorrelated Exchange Rate Model' (BAERM), measures how each Bitcoin halving affects price over time using past price data. It also accounts for the declining impact of supply shocks.
The BAERM model currently estimates Bitcoin's 'fair value' at $159,000, projecting $173,000 by the end of 2025 and $7.59 million over ten years. It has historically shown a strong predictive fit, with around 88% R² since the second halving.
Despite its strengths, BAERM may now be 'somewhat outdated,' according to Dragosch, since it does not fully account for the influence of institutional buying or changing adoption trends.
"It also doesn't account for a reacceleration in returns via an S-curve type of adoption pattern. However, if you still believe in the high importance of Halvings - this model is for you," the analyst remarked.
Lastly, the Power Law model ties Bitcoin's price to a time-based formula. While it lines up with a striking 99% R² in log-log regressions, it is notably conservative.
Its 10-year Bitcoin price prediction sits at $2.03 million, much lower than S2F or BAERM, based on the idea that returns will continue to decline as Bitcoin ages. Yet, the ongoing shift in market structure means that even cautious forecasts may need to reflect new, demand-driven growth possibilities.
"Technological adoption curves tend to follow an S-curve pattern of demand with re-accelerating demand during the transition from 'early adopters' to the 'early majority.' This is severely challenging the diminishing returns hypothesis of the Power Law. Moreover, the market structure has essentially changed since January 2024 with the rise of ETFs and institutional buyers. Past post-Halving performance patterns might not apply anymore," Dragosch stated.
Thus, while classic models like Stock-to-Flow, BAERM, and the Power Law still offer valuable perspectives on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, they increasingly fall short of capturing today’s demand-driven market. The next market cycle may reveal whether these frameworks evolve or give way to a new paradigm.
Read original story Are Bitcoin Price Models Still a Reliable Guide for Investors in 2025? by Kamina Bashir at beincrypto.com